These are my predictions, not facts. I’ve linked what’s real today so you can see why I think this way, and I’ve said how sure I am about each one. I’m thinking about the next ten years, and it’s moving quickly.
1. Most big sites and apps will require ID or proof you’re human
I’d bet on it. As AI gets better at pretending to be people, proving you’re real becomes the excuse. Researchers have already proposed “personhood credentials”, and World ID scans eyes to do it. The laws so far are sold on protecting kids, but the direction is the same.
- Sign to watch: a service you use every day asks for ID to keep your account.
- Do this first: keep your own copies of what matters, so losing an account doesn’t cost you your life’s work.
2. Refusing will slowly cost you access
I’d bet on it. I don’t expect one big moment. I expect one thing after another to stop working without it.
- Sign to watch: the only way to do something ordinary is through one required app or ID.
- Do this first: keep a non-app option alive, like a bank with a real branch and paper copies of your important records.
3. The US will score your behavior
I expect it, but probably through lots of private systems instead of one government score. It’s easy to picture China here, but the popular version of its system is mostly a myth: there’s no national citizen score, though blacklists are real. The US version is already starting. GM’s driver data reached insurers through data brokers.
- Sign to watch: a price, an apartment or a job depends on a score you can’t see.
- Do this first: check what your car, apps and devices share, and turn off what you can.
4. Digital ID could get tied to health records
It’s possible, and it’s more complicated than one law. There’s history here. ID2020, Gavi and Bangladesh announced a program linking infant vaccination to a biometric ID. The EU ran a digital COVID certificate until 2023. The US Supreme Court blocked one federal vaccine rule and allowed another in 2022.
My view is that access to normal life should never depend on what goes in your body.
- Sign to watch: health status becomes a required part of an ID app.
- Do this first: know your state’s rules and keep your own copies of your records.
5. Cash gets pushed out, slowly
I expect it, but it’s not happening fast. Cash is still about 1 in 7 payments, and the Fed’s latest study shows the average amount people keep as savings actually went up.
- Sign to watch: local stores stop taking cash and nearby ATMs disappear.
- Do this first: keep some cash at home and a relationship with a bank that has a branch.
6. Implants get sold as upgrades, and society splits
I expect it, but I won’t put a date on it. I mean elective upgrades for healthy people, not pacemakers, cochlear implants or treatment for paralysis. So far brain chips are medical, and Neuralink had 21 people in its trials in January 2026.
- Sign to watch: healthy people are offered an implant to be smarter or faster.
- Do this first: decide now where your line is, before anyone’s selling it to you.
If I’m wrong
If I’m wrong about all six, you’ll still have better backups, a plan for a bad day and more people around you. I can live with that.